Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks

Working paper

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish between the information set for 'normal forces' and the ones for 'break drivers', then outline sources of potential information. Relevant non-linear, dynamic models facing multiple breaks can have more candidate variables than observations, so we discuss automatic model selection. As a failure to accurately forecast breaks remains likely, we augment our strategy by modelling breaks during their progress, and consider robust forecasting devices.

Authors: Castle, J; Hendry, D; Fawcett, N

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Series: Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series
• Publication date: 2011-02-01
• Paper number: 535
• Keywords: information sets; non-linearity; structural breaks; economic forecasting