Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model

Journal article

Seasonal maize water-stress forecasts were derived for area averages of the primary maize-growing regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe. An agroclimatological model was used to create a historical record of maize water stress as a function of evapotranspiration for 1961-94. Water stress, the primary determinant of yield in water-limited environments such as southern Africa, was correlated with two well-known indices of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the Niño-3 region of the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts for South Africa using only the SOI at a 4-month lead yielded a hindcast correlation of 0.67 over 17 seasons (1961-78) and a forecast correlation of 0.69 over 16 seasons (1978-94). Forecasts for Zimbabwe were less remarkable.

Authors: Martin, R; Washington, R; Downing, T

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Americal Meteorological Society
• Journal: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
• Volume: 39
• Issue: 9
• Pages: 1473–1479
• Publication date: 2000-09-01
• DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1473:SMFFSA>2.0.CO;2
• EISSN: 1520-0450
• ISSN: 0894-8763
• Language: English
• Keywords: maize; water-stress
• Subjects: Environmental change; Environment