THE PROSPECTS FOR SEASONAL FORECASTING - A REVIEW PAPER

Journal article

The evidence for predictability of interannual fluctuations in the atmosphere and oceans is reviewed. The more linear nature of tropical dynamics is contrasted with the chaotic nature of extratropical circulations. The role of the largest interannual fluctuation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which has its origins in the tropical Pacific, but extends to influence half the globe, is the focus of much of the review. Seasonal predictions can be made with empirical or physically based models. The skill of both is reviewed but most consideration is given to the latter. Such models have both atmospheric and oceanic components but there is a wide range in the complexity of these modules. Developments in both atmospheric and oceanic models, needed to improve seasonal forecasts, are discussed. It is shown that predictions are sensitive to initial conditions as well as model formulation, implying the need for ensemble integrations similar to those currently under development for medium-range weather forecasting. -from Authors

Authors: Palmer, T; Anderson, D

• Publication status: Published
• Journal: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• Volume: 120
• Issue: 518
• Pages: 755-793
• Publication date: 1994-07-01
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.49712051802
• ISSN: 0035-9009