The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years

Journal article

Abstract:: This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium‐range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real‐time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics – particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System ‐ are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.

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Publisher:: Wiley
Journal:: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society More from this journal
Volume:: 145
Issue:: S1
Pages:: 12-24
Publication date:: 2018-08-26
Acceptance date:: 2018-08-26
DOI:: 10.1002/qj.3383
EISSN:: 1477-870X
ISSN:: 0035-9009

Language:: English
Keywords:: disaster relief reduction

the butterfly effect

ensemble prediction

stochastic physics

singular vectors
Pubs id:: pubs:927084
UUID:: uuid:1163ef82-4585-44aa-aab6-02ca795f9342
Local pid:: pubs:927084
Source identifiers:: 927084
Deposit date:: 2019-02-13

Copyright holder:: Palmer, T
Notes:: © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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