Economic trends in Qing China: A response to Rawski's bold claims

Journal article

Thomas Rawski challenges recent quantitative studies that find declining Chinese GDP per capita during 1700–1850 and suggests that the error margins around the component series for per capita grain supply should be widened, which would make it possible to accommodate stagnation, growth or decline. We show that there are good reasons to reject Rawski's wider error margins. We also reject Rawski's claim that there has previously been a consensus view of eighteenth‐century Qing prosperity and demonstrate that trends in the other variables examined by Rawski tend to support declining per capita grain supply.

Authors: Broadberry, S; Guan, H; Li, DD

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: Wiley
• Journal: Asia-Pacific Economic History Review
• Publication date: 2026-02-08
• Acceptance date: 2026-01-20
• DOI: 10.1111/aehr.70019
• EISSN: 2832157X
• ISSN: 2832157X
• Language: English
• Keywords: Qing dynasty; economic trends; error margins; China