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Modelling the dynamics of scarlet fever epidemics in the 19th century.

Abstract:

Annual deaths from scarlet fever in Liverpool, UK during 1848-1900 have been used as a model system for studying the historical dynamics of the epidemics. Mathematical models are developed which include the growth of the population and the death rate from scarlet fever. Time-series analysis of the results shows that there were two distinct phases to the disease (i) 1848-1880: regular epidemics (wavelength = 3.7 years) consistent with the system being driven by an oscillation in the transmissi...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1023/a:1007645110006

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Engineering Science
Role:
Author
Journal:
European journal of epidemiology
Volume:
16
Issue:
7
Pages:
619-626
Publication date:
2000-01-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1573-7284
ISSN:
0393-2990
URN:
uuid:0e0683d7-93bf-4f95-bb5a-ece81c41f236
Source identifiers:
62393
Local pid:
pubs:62393

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