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Forecast Skill and Predictability of Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Abstract:

An empirical statistical model is constructed to assess the forecast skill and the linear predictability of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) is used to build a dynamically based statistical model using observed Atlantic SST anomalies between latitudes 20 degrees S and 66 degrees N from 1870 to 2009. LIM allows one to fit a multivariate red-noise model to the observed annually averaged SST anomalies and to test it. Forecast skill is assess...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00539.1

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Journal:
Journal of Climate More from this journal
Volume:
25
Issue:
14
Pages:
5047-5056
Publication date:
2012-01-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0442
ISSN:
0894-8755
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:199395
UUID:
uuid:0d66f862-0dd3-4e63-b82e-975541514de8
Local pid:
pubs:199395
Source identifiers:
199395
Deposit date:
2012-12-19

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