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Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat

Abstract:
Children are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and will face intensifying effects of climate change during their lifetimes. Here we show that children already face disproportionate exposure compared to older generations, as many live in regions hit hardest by escalating humid heat stress. Combining demographic data with a global grid-scale attribution framework, we find that at present-day warming levels 2.8 – 3 times more children aged 0 to 9 than adults aged 60 to 69 are exposed to at least 20 additional heat stress days attributable to anthropogenic climate change, based on both reanalysis (3.0 [3.0 – 3.1]) and climate models (2.8 [2.4 – 3.0]). On average, children experience 9 – 10 more attributable heat stress days than people aged 60 to 69 (reanalysis 9 [6 – 9], models 10 [6 – 13]), and this difference is likely conservative as children spend more time outdoors. This intergenerational disparity persists as overall heat stress escalates under global warming of 1.5ºC and 2ºC, highlighting the need for mitigation and adaptation policies to protect children from heat-related health risks.
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1126/sciadv.aeb3232

Authors

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Smith School
Oxford college:
Linacre College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-1854-0641
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Social Policy & Intervention
Role:
Author


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Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/019w4f821
Grant:
101057843
Programme:
Horizons Heat Indicators for Global Health (HIGH)
More from this funder
Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/01a77tt86
Grant:
OZRIFTM12
More from this funder
Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/0472cxd90
Grant:
101076909


Publisher:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Journal:
Science Advances More from this journal
Volume:
12
Issue:
35
Article number:
eaeb3232
Publication date:
2026-08-26
Acceptance date:
2026-06-23
DOI:
EISSN:
2375-2548


Language:
English
Pubs id:
2440012
Local pid:
pubs:2440012
Deposit date:
2026-06-30
ARK identifier:

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