Journal article
Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing
- Abstract:
- The uncertainty in present-day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present-day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here we present a robust relationship between total present-day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across three multi-model ensembles and a large single-model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 5.7MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1029/2020GL087141
Authors
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Journal:
- Geophysical Research Letters More from this journal
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 9
- Article number:
- e2020GL087141
- Publication date:
- 2020-05-16
- Acceptance date:
- 2020-03-27
- DOI:
- EISSN:
-
1944-8007
- ISSN:
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0094-8276
- Language:
-
English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
-
1096849
- Local pid:
-
pubs:1096849
- Deposit date:
-
2020-03-27
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Watson-Parris et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2020
- Rights statement:
- © 2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
- Notes:
- This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version will be available online from the American Geophysical Union at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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