Short-term Load Forecasting Methods: An Evaluation Based on European Data

Journal article

This paper uses intraday electricity demand data from 10 European countries as the basis of an empirical comparison of univariate methods for prediction up to a day-ahead. A notable feature of the time series is the presence of both an intraweek and an intraday seasonal cycle. The forecasting methods considered in the study include: ARIMA modeling; periodic AR modeling; an extension for double seasonality of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing; a recently proposed alternative exponential smoot...

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Authors: Taylor, J; McSharry, P

• Publication date: 2007-11-01