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Short-term Load Forecasting Methods: An Evaluation Based on European Data

Abstract:

This paper uses intraday electricity demand data from 10 European countries as the basis of an empirical comparison of univariate methods for prediction up to a day-ahead. A notable feature of the time series is the presence of both an intraweek and an intraday seasonal cycle. The forecasting methods considered in the study include: ARIMA modeling; periodic AR modeling; an extension for double seasonality of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing; a recently proposed alternative exponential smoot...

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Publication date:
2007-11-01
UUID:
uuid:09f33435-6ddb-4fec-bab1-fc15923cecb7
Local pid:
oai:eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk:1714
Deposit date:
2012-02-06

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