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Estimates of flow‐dependent predictability of wintertime Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes in medium‐range forecasts

Abstract:

This study assesses the medium‐range flow‐dependent forecast skill of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes: the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+ and NAO−), Atlantic ridge (ATLR), and Euro‐Atlantic blocking (EABL), for extended winters (November–March) in the periods 2006/2007–2013/2014 and 1985/1986–2013/2014 using The Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/qj.3265

Authors


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Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-8913-1303
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Oxford college:
Jesus College
Role:
Author
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Name:
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Grant:
16K16378
Publisher:
Wiley
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society More from this journal
Volume:
144
Issue:
713
Pages:
1012-1027
Publication date:
2018-02-21
Acceptance date:
2018-02-15
DOI:
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:919336
UUID:
uuid:089926a6-05d6-4819-8e73-17ead689ab30
Local pid:
pubs:919336
Source identifiers:
919336
Deposit date:
2019-02-13

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