- Abstract:
- Although out-of-sample forecast performance is often deemed to be the ‘gold standard’ of evaluation, it is not in fact a good yardstick for evaluating models in general. The arguments are illustrated with reference to a recent paper by Carruth, Hooker and Oswald [Review of Economics and Statistics (1998), Vol. 80, pp. 621��628], who suggest that the good dynamic forecasts of their model support the efficiency-wage theory on which it is based.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00146.x
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- Publisher:
- Blackwell Publishing Publisher's website
- Journal:
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Journal website
- Volume:
- 67
- Issue:
- s1
- Pages:
- 931-956
- Publication date:
- 2005-12-05
- DOI:
- ISSN:
-
0305-9049
- URN:
-
uuid:0572032b-3894-4881-92ee-516164bdb98f
- Local pid:
- ora:1943
- Copyright holder:
- Blackwell Publishing
- Copyright date:
- 2005
- Notes:
- The full-text of this article is not available in ORA at this time. Citation: Clements, M. P. & Hendry, D. F. (2005). 'Evaluating a model by forecast performance', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(s1), 931-956. [The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com].
Journal article
Evaluating a model by forecast performance
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