Sovereign risk in the classical gold standard era

Working paper

This paper explores the determinants of sovereign bond yields during the classical gold standard period (1872-1913). Using the Pooled Mean Group methodology, we find that the main benefit of the gold standard can be seen as a short-hand device that enhanced a country's reputation in international capital markets. By conveying important information to investors and enhancing the speed of adjustment of sovereign bond spreads to long-run equilibrium levels, the gold standard allowed country risk to be priced more effectively. In contrast to other studies, our results indicate that fundamental factors appear to be more important in determining a country's creditworthiness in the long-run than the exchange rate regime per se.

Authors: Cameron, G; Tan, K; Gai, P

• Publication status: Published
• Publisher: University of Oxford
• Series: Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series
• Publication date: 2006-03-01
• Paper number: 258
• Keywords: gold standard; heterogeneous dynamic panels; pooled mean group estimator; sovereign risk