A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

Lim, A-Y; Jafari, Y; Caldwell, JM; Clapham, HE; Gaythorpe, KAM; Hussain-Alkhateeb, L; Johansson, MA; Kraemer, MUG; Maude, RJ; McCormack, CP; Messina, JP; Mordecai, EA; Rabe, IB; Reiner, RC; Ryan, SJ; Salje, H; Semenza, JC; Rojas, DP; Brady, OJ

Journal article

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

Abstract:: Author summary: Global risk maps are an important tool for assessing the global threat of mosquito and tick-transmitted arboviral diseases. Public health officials increasingly rely on risk maps to understand the drivers of transmission, forecast spread, identify gaps in surveillance, estimate disease burden, and target and evaluate the impact of interventions. Here, we describe how current approaches to mapping arboviral diseases have become unnecessarily siloed, ignoring the strengths and weaknesses of different data types and methods. This places limits on data and model output comparability, uncertainty estimation and generalisation that limit the answers they can provide to some of the most pressing questions in arbovirus control. We argue for a new generation of risk mapping models that jointly infer risk from multiple data types. We outline how this can be achieved conceptually and show how this new framework creates opportunities to better integrate epidemiological understanding and uncertainty quantification. We advocate for more co-development of risk maps among modellers and end-users to better enable risk maps to inform public health decisions. Prospective validation of risk maps for specific applications can inform further targeted data collection and subsequent model refinement in an iterative manner. If the expanding use of arbovirus risk maps for control is to continue, methods must develop and adapt to changing questions, interventions and data availability

Publication status:: Published

Peer review status:: Peer reviewed

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APA Style

Lim, A.-Y., Jafari, Y., Caldwell, J. M., Clapham, H. E., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Hussain-Alkhateeb, L., Johansson, M. A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Maude, R. J., McCormack, C. P., Messina, J. P., Mordecai, E. A., Rabe, I. B., Reiner, R. C., Ryan, S. J., Salje, H., Semenza, J. C., Rojas, D. P., & Brady, O. J. (2023). A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk. BMC Infectious Diseases, 23(1), 708–708.

MLA Style

Lim, A-Y, et al. “A Systematic Review of the Data, Methods and Environmental Covariates Used to Map Aedes-Borne Arbovirus Transmission Risk.” BMC Infectious Diseases, vol. 23, no. 1, 2023, pp. 708–08.

Chicago Style

Lim, A-Y, Y Jafari, JM Caldwell, et al. 2023. “A Systematic Review of the Data, Methods and Environmental Covariates Used to Map Aedes-Borne Arbovirus Transmission Risk.” BMC Infectious Diseases 23 (1): 708–.
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