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Journal article

Graph-based methods for forecasting realized covariances

Abstract:

We forecast the realized covariance matrix of asset returns in the U.S. equity market by exploiting the predictive information of graphs in volatility and correlation. Specifically, we augment the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model via neighborhood aggregation on these graphs. Our proposed method allows for the modeling of interdependence in volatility (also known as spillover effect) and correlation, while maintaining parsimony and interpretability. We explore various graph construction methods, including sector membership and graphical LASSO (for modeling volatility), and line graph (for modeling correlation). The results generally suggest that the augmented model incorporating graph information yields both statistically and economically significant improvements for out-of-sample performance over the traditional models. Such improvements remain significant over horizons up to 1 month ahead, but decay in time. The robustness tests demonstrate that the forecast improvements are obtained consistently over the different out-of-sample sub-periods and are insensitive to measurement errors of volatilities.

Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1093/jjfinec/nbae026

Authors

More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Engineering Science
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Engineering Science
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Statistics
Oxford college:
Merton College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-8464-2152
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Engineering Science
Oxford college:
Lady Margaret Hall
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0002-1143-9786


Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Journal:
Journal of Financial Econometrics More from this journal
Volume:
23
Issue:
2
Article number:
nbae026
Publication date:
2024-11-09
Acceptance date:
2024-10-17
DOI:
EISSN:
1479-8417
ISSN:
1479-8409


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
2063585
Local pid:
pubs:2063585
Deposit date:
2025-07-05
ARK identifier:

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