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Journal article

Error in ERA5 2m temperature identified using GraphCast

Abstract:

Reanalyses such as ERA5 have long been foundational for weather and climate science. They have also found a new use case, as training and verification data for machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models. Here we compare short-lead time (6h) forecasts from the MLWP model GraphCast against ERA5. In doing so, we identify a recurrent, spatially coherent error in 2m Temperature centred on the Ethiopian Highlands, that occurs predominantly at 0600 UTC. We find the same error feature is present in other MLWP models trained on ERA5. We show that these error events arise from errors in ERA5 that are also present in the ECMWF operational analysis. They arise from the 2D optimal interpolation procedure, when surface reports are assimilated that are temporally displaced compared to the background forecast. This produces spuriously warm analysis increments over Ethiopia on approximately 7% of dates at 0600 UTC across the reanalysis record. The spread from the ensemble of data assimilation partially flags these cases but is underdispersive. We assess the impact on a MLWP system trained on ERA5. While the MLWP model can largely ignore these unphysical error events, a small systematic degradation in forecast skill over the region is observed. We discuss implications for using reanalysis as truth in machine learning training and verification, and recommend simple changes to reduce such artefacts in future analyses.

Publication status:
Accepted
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Authors

More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Oxford college:
Wadham College
Role:
Author
ORCID:
0000-0001-8244-0218
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Role:
Author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Role:
Author


More from this funder
Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/012mzw131
Grant:
RL-2022-020
More from this funder
Funder identifier:
https://ror.org/001aqnf71
Grant:
10049639


Publisher:
Wiley
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society More from this journal
Acceptance date:
2026-08-26
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009


Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
2453230
Local pid:
pubs:2453230
Deposit date:
2026-08-28
ARK identifier:

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