Journal article
A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study
- Abstract:
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Background
In March, 2016, the UK government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high, moderate, and no tax for drinks with >8g, 5g to 8g, and <5g sugar per 100ml). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes, and dental caries.
Methods
We modelled three possible industry responses: (1) reformulation to reduce sugar concentration, (2) increasing product price, and (3) changing the market share of high-, mid-, and low-sugar drinks. For each response, we defined a better and worse case health scenario. We developed a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the UK health impact of each scenario.
Findings
The best modelled scenario for health is SSB reformulation, resulting in 144,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 5,100 to 306,700) fewer adults and children with obesity in the UK, 19,000 (6,900 to 32,700) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 269,000 (82,200 to 470,900) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. Increasing the price of SSBs and changes to market share to increase the proportion of low-sugar drinks sold would also result in population health benefits, but to a lesser extent. The greatest benefit for obesity and oral health would be among individuals under 18 years, with people over 65 years experiencing the largest absolute decreases in diabetes incidence.
Interpretation
The health impact of the soft drink levy is dependent on its implementation by industry. There is uncertainty as to how industry will react and in the estimation of health outcomes. Health gains could be maximised by significant product reformulation with additional benefits possible if the levy is passed onto purchasers through raising the price of high- and mid-sugar drinks, and through activities to increase the market share of low-sugar products.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, pdf, 340.1KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1016/S2468-2667(16)30037-8
Authors
- Publisher:
- Lancet
- Journal:
- Lancet Public Health More from this journal
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- e15-e22
- Publication date:
- 2016-12-15
- Acceptance date:
- 2016-11-22
- DOI:
- ISSN:
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2468-2667
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:661453
- UUID:
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uuid:2be1c605-4a93-4d12-af48-7f6ba63864bd
- Local pid:
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pubs:661453
- Deposit date:
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2016-11-24
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Briggs et al
- Copyright date:
- 2016
- Notes:
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Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access
article under a Creative Commons licence. Open access funded by Medical Research Council.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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