Journal article
Enhancing trading strategies with order book signals
- Abstract:
- We use high-frequency data from the Nasdaq exchange to build a measure of volume imbalance in the limit order (LO) book. We show that our measure is a good predictor of the sign of the next market order (MO), i.e., buy or sell, and also helps to predict price changes immediately after the arrival of an MO. Based on these empirical findings, we introduce and calibrate a Markov chain-modulated pure jump model of price, spread, LO and MO arrivals and volume imbalance. As an application of the model, we pose and solve a stochastic control problem for an agent who maximizes terminal wealth, subject to inventory penalties, by executing trades using LOs. We use in-sample-data (January to June 2014) to calibrate the model to 11 equities traded in the Nasdaq exchange and use out-of-sample data (July to December 2014) to test the performance of the strategy. We show that introducing our volume imbalance measure into the optimization problem considerably boosts the profits of the strategy. Profits increase because employing our imbalance measure reduces adverse selection costs and positions LOs in the book to take advantage of favourable price movements.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Preview, Accepted manuscript, pdf, 766.5KB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1080/1350486X.2018.1434009
Authors
- Publisher:
- Routledge
- Journal:
- Applied Mathematical Finance More from this journal
- Volume:
- 25
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- 1-35
- Publication date:
- 2018-02-23
- Acceptance date:
- 2018-01-25
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1466-4313
- ISSN:
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1350-486X
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:731984
- UUID:
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uuid:006addde-3a03-4d75-89c1-04b59026e1c0
- Local pid:
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pubs:731984
- Source identifiers:
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731984
- Deposit date:
-
2018-01-26
- ARK identifier:
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
- Copyright date:
- 2018
- Notes:
- Copyright © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Routledge at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1350486X.2018.1434009
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