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Skillful Seasonal Prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic Ozone

Abstract:

Using a set of seasonal hindcast simulations produced by the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), significant predictability of the southern annular mode (SAM) is demonstrated during the austral spring. The correlation of the September-November mean SAM with observed values is 0.64, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level [confidence interval: (0.18, 0.92)], and is similar to that found recently for the North Atlantic Oscillation in the same ...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1

Authors


Seviour, WJM More by this author
Hardiman, SC More by this author
Butchart, N More by this author
MacLachlan, C More by this author
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Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Journal:
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume:
27
Issue:
19
Pages:
7462-7474
Publication date:
2014-10-05
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0442
ISSN:
0894-8755
URN:
uuid:fe126bc2-8e6b-4b21-a56c-d3bee3f56269
Source identifiers:
487048
Local pid:
pubs:487048

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