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MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTABILITY AND STABILITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN MODE

Abstract:

It is shown from an assessment of a small set of extended range forecasts from two centres, and from a much larger set of medium range forecasts from one centre, that variability in predictive skill is strongly related to fluctuations in the Pacific/North American (PNA) mode of low frequency variability. A hypothesis is put forward that this is associated with the dependence of large-scale instability of the forecast flow on the amplitude of the PNA mode. The hypothesis is tested in a barotro...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1256/smsqj.48107

Authors


Journal:
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
Volume:
114
Issue:
481
Pages:
691-713
Publication date:
1988-04-05
DOI:
ISSN:
0035-9009
URN:
uuid:fd7baa5b-db31-4e87-ad9b-c627f6e59199
Source identifiers:
169929
Local pid:
pubs:169929
Language:
English

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