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Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect

Abstract:

We model the effect of competing political campaigns on the opinion of voters who exhibit correlation neglect, i.e., fail to understand that different campaigns might be correlated. We show that political campaigners can manipulate voters' beliefs even when voters understand the informativeness of each campaign separately. The optimal coordination of campaigns involves negative correlation of good news and sometimes full positive correlation of bad news. We show that competition in targeted c...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1561/100.00019125

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Economics
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Now Publishers
Journal:
Quarterly Journal of Political Science More from this journal
Volume:
16
Issue:
2
Pages:
139-155
Publication date:
2021-02-24
Acceptance date:
2020-06-16
DOI:
EISSN:
1554-0634
ISSN:
1554-0626
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1116213
Local pid:
pubs:1116213
Deposit date:
2020-07-03

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