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The wisdom of crowds: what do citizens forecast for the 2015 British general election?

Abstract:

Who do you think will win in your constituency? Most citizens correctly answer this question, and groups are even better at answering it. Combining individual forecasts results in the ‘wisdom of crowds’ explained by Condorcet’s jury theorem. This paper demonstrates the accuracy of citizen forecasts in seven British General Elections between 1964 and 2010, and reports what citizens interviewed in February and March forecasted for the election in May 2015. ‘Citizen forecasting’ predicts vote sh...

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Publication status:
In press
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
Politics & Int Relations
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Electoral Studies More from this journal
Publication date:
2015-01-01
DOI:
ISSN:
0261-3794
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:577664
UUID:
uuid:fd3ea35a-0a22-4752-9fbb-b9faefee034f
Local pid:
pubs:577664
Source identifiers:
577664
Deposit date:
2015-12-02

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