An hypothesis for the periodicity of smallpox epidemics as revealed by time series analysis.

Journal article

Parish registers have been studied by time series analysis to detect smallpox epidemics in England during 1600-1800. Confirmatory evidence was provided by the seasonality of child mortality. A 5-year cycle in smallpox epidemics was detected in medium-sized, rural towns. Consideration of the mathematics of the dynamics of viral diseases suggests that the true interepidemic period where smallpox is endemic should be 2-3 years and it is concluded that, in the towns studied, the disease was not e...

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Authors: Duncan, S; Scott, S; Duncan, C

• Publication status: Published
• Journal: Journal of theoretical biology
• Volume: 160
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 231-248
• Publication date: 1993-01-01
• DOI: 10.1006/jtbi.1993.1016
• EISSN: 1095-8541
• ISSN: 0022-5193
• Language: English
• Keywords: Smallpox; Humans; Child; Infant Mortality; Starvation; Infant; Models, Statistical; Registries; Birth Rate; England; Periodicity; Disease Outbreaks; Models, Biological; Seasons