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Journal article

Estimates of uncertainty in predictions of global mean surface temperature

Abstract:

A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to pridictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship between twentieth-century warming and twenty-first-century warming. This relationship is established from a large ensemble of energy balance...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1175/JCLI4012.1

Authors


Kettleborough, JA More by this author
Booth, BBB More by this author
More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics, Geography
Journal:
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume:
20
Issue:
5
Pages:
843-855
Publication date:
2007-03-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1520-0442
ISSN:
0894-8755
URN:
uuid:d36bddf9-6cb1-49c2-99e4-186eb7cefdf6
Source identifiers:
16504
Local pid:
pubs:16504
Language:
English

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