Thesis

### Nonlinear model evaluation: $\iota$ shadowing, probabilistic prediction and weather forecasting

Abstract:

Physical processes are often modelled using nonlinear dynamical systems. If such models are relevant then they should be capable of demonstrating behaviour observed in the physical process. In this thesis a new measure of model optimality is introduced: the distribution of $\iota$ shadowing times defines the durations over which there exists a model trajectory consistent with the observations. By recognising the uncertainty present in every observation, including the initial condition, \$\io...

Files:
• (pdf, 2.4MB)

### Authors

Publication date:
1999
URN:
uuid:cb53cbe6-1cbf-4e10-a2ca-8e4cfddb009d
Local pid:
oai:eprints.maths.ox.ac.uk:36