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Initial Distribution Spread: A density forecasting approach

Abstract:

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as on...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.physd.2012.01.007

Authors


Machete, RL More by this author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Mathematical Inst
Journal:
PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA
Volume:
241
Issue:
8
Pages:
805-815
Publication date:
2012-07-18
DOI:
ISSN:
0167-2789
URN:
uuid:cabc7075-e61f-4de1-a5d7-0c161e34d45a
Source identifiers:
314090
Local pid:
pubs:314090

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