Journal article
Initial Distribution Spread: A density forecasting approach
- Abstract:
-
Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as on...
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- Publication status:
- Published
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1016/j.physd.2012.01.007
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Authors
Bibliographic Details
- Journal:
- PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA
- Volume:
- 241
- Issue:
- 8
- Pages:
- 805-815
- Publication date:
- 2012-07-18
- DOI:
- ISSN:
-
0167-2789
- URN:
-
uuid:cabc7075-e61f-4de1-a5d7-0c161e34d45a
- Source identifiers:
-
314090
- Local pid:
- pubs:314090
Item Description
- Keywords:
Terms of use
- Copyright date:
- 2012
- Notes:
- 21 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication at Physica D
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