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Journal article

Uncertainty quantification and optimal decisions

Abstract:

A mathematical model can be analysed to construct policies for action that are close to optimal for the model. If the model is accurate, such policies will be close to optimal when implemented in the real world. In this paper, the different aspects of an ideal workflow are reviewed: modelling, forecasting, evaluating forecasts, data assimilation and constructing control policies for decision-making. The example of the oil industry is used to motivate the discussion, and other examples, such a...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1098/rspa.2017.0115

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Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Mathematical Institute
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Royal Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science Journal website
Volume:
473
Issue:
2200
Pages:
1-17
Publication date:
2017-04-26
Acceptance date:
2017-03-21
DOI:
EISSN:
1471-2946
ISSN:
1364-5021
Pubs id:
pubs:694029
URN:
uri:be4bade9-2d23-48ea-9882-1467bfbd8093
UUID:
uuid:be4bade9-2d23-48ea-9882-1467bfbd8093
Local pid:
pubs:694029

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