The Eatwell Guide: modelling the dietary and cost implications of incorporating new sugar and fibre guidelines

Journal article

Objectives: To model food group consumption and price of diet associated with achieving UK dietary recommendations whilst deviating as little as possible from the current UK diet, in order to support the redevelopment of the UK food food-based dietary guidelines (now called the Eatwell Guide).
Design: Optimisation modelling, minimising an objective function of the difference between population mean modelled and current consumption of 125 food groups, and constraints of nutrient and food-based recommendations.
Setting: UK
Population: Adults aged 19y and above from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2011.
Main outcome measures: Proportion of diet consisting of major foods groups and price of the optimised diet.
Results: The optimised diet has an increase in consumption of “potatoes, bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates” (+69%) and “fruit and vegetables” (+54%) and reductions in consumption of “beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat and other proteins” (-24%), “dairy and alternatives” (-21%), and “foods high in fat and sugar” (-53%). Results within food groups show considerable variety (e.g. +90% for beans and pulses, -78% for red meat). The modelled diet would cost £5.99 (£5.93 to £6.05) per adult per day, very similar to the cost of the current diet: £6.02 (£5.96 to £6.08). The optimised diet would result in increased consumption of n3 fatty acids and most micronutrients (including iron and folate), but decreased consumption of zinc and small decreases in calcium and riboflavin.
Conclusions: To achieve the UK dietary recommendations would require large changes to the average diet of UK adults, including in food groups where current average consumption is well within the recommended range (e.g. processed meat) or where there are no current 3 recommendations (e.g. dairy). These large changes in the diet will not lead to significant changes in the price of the diet.

Authors: Scarborough, P; Kaur, A; Cobiac, L; Owens, P; Parlesak, A

• Publication status: Published
• Peer review status: Peer reviewed
• Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
• Journal: BMJ Open
• Volume: 6
• Issue: 12
• Publication date: 2016-12-01
• Acceptance date: 2016-11-01
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-013182
• EISSN: 2044-6055
• ISSN: 2044-6055
• Keywords: optimisation; food-based dietary guidelines; non-communicable disease scenario modelling; food price; nutrition; diet; non-linear programming