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Assessing the likelihood of an important clinical outcome: new insights from a comparison of clinical and actuarial judgment.

Abstract:

PURPOSE: To assess and rank the performance of different methods of predicting the probability of death following a specified surgical procedure. METHOD: Actuarial estimates of the probability of early mortality for 40 patients were derived from 2 sources: a large published surgical series and a smaller series from the center where surgery was performed. Surgeons and cardiologists also provided probability estimates for these patients. RESULTS: Estimates derived from the published literature...

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Publisher copy:
10.1177/0272989x05276849

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MSD, Experimental Psychology
Role:
Author
Journal:
Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Volume:
25
Issue:
3
Pages:
262-282
Publication date:
2005-01-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1552-681X
ISSN:
0272-989X
URN:
uuid:a88afacc-acd3-4f43-9d83-5354bbb3c386
Source identifiers:
450568
Local pid:
pubs:450568

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