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Assessing the accuracy of density‐independent demographic models for predicting species ranges

Abstract:

Accurately predicting species ranges is a primary goal of ecology. Demographic distribution models (DDMs), which correlate underlying vital rates (e.g. survival and reproduction) with environmental conditions, can potentially predict species ranges through time and space. However, tests of DDM accuracy across wide ranges of species' life histories are surprisingly lacking. Using simulations of 1.5 million hypothetical species' range dynamics, we evaluated when DDMs accurately predicted future...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1111/ecog.05250

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Zoology
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Wiley Publisher's website
Journal:
Ecography Journal website
Volume:
44
Issue:
3
Pages:
345-357
Publication date:
2020-12-02
Acceptance date:
2020-11-13
DOI:
EISSN:
1600-0587
ISSN:
0906-7590
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1146538
Local pid:
pubs:1146538
Deposit date:
2020-11-24

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