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Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?

Abstract:

After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improving economic forecasting is considered, building on Clements and Hendry (1994a). The basis of the analysis is a world where model selection is difficult, no model coincides with the economic mechanism, and that mechanism is both non-stationary and evolves over time. On the constructive side, econometric analysis suggests ways of reducing each of the resulting five sources of forecast uncertainty...

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Authors


David F Hendry More by this author
Michael P Clements More by this author
Journal:
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
Volume:
130
Issue:
3
Publication date:
1994
URN:
uuid:98f354c0-de1c-4ec7-9991-5a79a7c951f1
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:11453
Language:
English

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