Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?
After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improving economic forecasting is considered, building on Clements and Hendry (1994a). The basis of the analysis is a world where model selection is difficult, no model coincides with the economic mechanism, and that mechanism is both non-stationary and evolves over time. On the constructive side, econometric analysis suggests ways of reducing each of the resulting five sources of forecast uncertainty...Expand abstract
- Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
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