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Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment

Abstract:

Successfully predicting that something will become a big hit seems impressive. Managers and entrepreneurs who have made successful predictions and have invested money on this basis are promoted, become rich, and may end up on the cover of business magazines. In this paper, we show that an accurate prediction about such an extreme event, e.g., a big hit, may in fact be an indication of poor rather than good forecasting ability. We first demonstrate how this conclusion can be derived from a for...

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Jerker Denrell More by this author
Christina Fang More by this author
Publication date:
2010
URN:
uuid:94b28381-ef2c-4ad4-9503-362b982f7308
Local pid:
oai:eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk:986

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