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Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Double Seasonal Exponential Smoothing.

Abstract:

This paper considers univariate online electricity demand forecasting for lead times from a half-hour-ahead to a day-ahead. A time series of demand recorded at half-hourly intervals contains more than one seasonal pattern. A within-day seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand profile from one day to the next, and a within-week seasonal cycle is evident when one compares the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is strong appeal in using a forecasting met...

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Authors


James W. Taylor More by this author
Journal:
Journal of the Operational Research Society
Volume:
54
Issue:
8
Publication date:
2003-08-05
DOI:
URN:
uuid:944c1d8e-cf0b-4dd1-be75-fae36a71658f
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:14884
Language:
English

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