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Time Series Modelling of Monthly WTI Crude Oil Returns

Abstract:

This paper examines the dynamics of the monthly WTI crude oil return for the past two decades. The data are divided into two ten-year periods, and we explore with two approaches. We rst build univariate time series models using the Box-Jenkins methodology. Techniques such as stationarity tests and autocorrelation plots are used to determine the orders of the nal ARIMA model. GARCH and APARCH are also used to model residuals. Then, we build regression models based on eight explanatory variable...

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Publisher:
Oxford University;Mathematical Institute
Publication date:
2013-06-21
UUID:
uuid:8e9c3541-887c-40df-a3a7-4a825e69a19e
Local pid:
oai:eprints.maths.ox.ac.uk:1738
Deposit date:
2013-08-13

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