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Journal article

How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation

Abstract:

Ensemble prediction systems aim to account for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. Ensemble forecasting is sometimes viewed as a method of obtaining (objective) probabilistic forecasts. How is one to judge the quality of an ensemble at forecasting a system? The probability that the bounding box of an ensemble captures some target (such as 'truth' in a perfect model scenario) provides new statistics for quantifying the quality of an ensemble prediction system: information that...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1002/qj.111

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Journal:
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY More from this journal
Volume:
133
Issue:
626
Pages:
1309-1325
Publication date:
2007-07-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1477-870X
ISSN:
0035-9009
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:157974
UUID:
uuid:8d624d96-c18d-4c70-b852-73ea4b238c1b
Local pid:
pubs:157974
Source identifiers:
157974
Deposit date:
2012-12-19

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