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Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'

Abstract:

Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specif...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Publisher's version

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Publisher copy:
10.1098/rstb.2007.0028

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Institution:
"Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK"
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Institution:
University of Sheffield
Department:
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences
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Institution:
"Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK"
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Institution:
"Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK"
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Institution:
"Met Office Hadley Centre, Wallingford, Oxon, UK"
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Publisher:
Royal Society Publisher's website
Journal:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Journal website
Volume:
363
Issue:
1498
Pages:
1857-1864
Publication date:
2008-05-05
DOI:
EISSN:
1471-2970
URN:
uuid:8c07dba1-6ee6-4fb0-830b-869aa2eb0494
Local pid:
ora:3173

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