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Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events

Abstract:

By using rank-order statistics, it is possible to predict the likely scale of future "extreme" volcanic events (eruptions larger than a given threshold size, or repose periods longer than a given time) on both a local and global scale. When ranked by diminishing size, the largest and most devastating volcanic eruptions in terms of volume, or consequent fatalities, can be described by power-law functions. In turn, this approach permits projection of, for example, (1) the likely size of the nex...

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Publication status:
Published

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Department:
Oxford, MPLS, Earth Sciences
Journal:
GEOLOGY
Volume:
26
Issue:
4
Pages:
367-370
Publication date:
1998-04-05
DOI:
ISSN:
0091-7613
URN:
uuid:8b3fa4d6-bc76-4a26-9e4f-37631c5f65f0
Source identifiers:
394131
Local pid:
pubs:394131

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