Responding to shocks: cash, transfers and imagery

Thesis

This thesis consists of three standalone chapters that speak to the broad theme of responding to shocks in low- and middle-income countries. Chapter 1 investigates the impact of receiving cash transfers in anticipation of an extreme climate disaster, thereby enabling low-income households to cope with the shock on their own terms. We present quasi-experimental evidence showing the effectiveness of a timelier forecast-based cash transfer delivered to low-income households just before the peak of severe flooding in Bangladesh. We find that the `anticipatory’ cash transfer enabled households to change their behaviour and improve their welfare, both during the flood and three months after the intervention. Chapter 2 explores the role of mental imagery in overcoming trauma – largely induced by exposure to violence – by fostering the ability to imagine the future. We design and test a ten-session entrepreneurship training curriculum that teaches mental imagery in business decision making through a randomised control trial in Colombia. We find that mental imagery can be taught as a skill and those who receive imagery training improve their earnings, relative to those who receive a placebo entrepreneurship training. Chapter 3 explores the interaction between public and private cash transfers, recognising that social protection may interact with existing coping strategies. I estimate the extent to which receiving an old-age pension crowds out remittances in post-Apartheid South Africa, using a regression discontinuity design. I find evidence of substantial crowding out in a middle-income country context: for every 1 rand of pension received, 0.22 rand of remittances are displaced on average.

Authors: Pople, A

• Type of award: DPhil
• Level of award: Doctoral
• Awarding institution: University of Oxford
• Language: English
• Keywords: remittances; cash transfers; entrepreneurship; anticipatory action; imagery; disasters; social protection
• Subjects: Resilience; Economics--Psychological aspects; Development; Economics