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Inferring Superior Capabilities from Sustained Superior Performance: A Bayesian Analysis

Abstract:

To what extent can one infer that superior capabilities are driving sustained superior performance? Modeling performance as some combination of differences in capabilities and processes of cumulative advantage, we argue that a Bayesian framework in which decision makers take into account the differences in cumulative advantage provides for a correct inference. We show, using both simulated and real performance data, that the Bayesian method gives rise to estimates relevant for the inference p...

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Publication date:
2011-01-01
URN:
uuid:761bd963-c231-486c-ae6a-6ce36ae7b275
Local pid:
oai:eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk:1268

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