- Abstract:
-
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide to ex-ante forecast performance. We expound a number of models, methods, and procedures that illustrate the impacts of structural breaks on forecast accuracy, and evaluate ways of improving forecast performance. We argue that a theory of economic forecasting which allows for model mis-specification and structural breaks is feasible, and may provide a useful basis for interpreting and circumventi...
Expand abstract - Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
- Version:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Files:
-
-
(pdf, 317.6KB)
-
- Publisher copy:
- 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00057-5
-
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- Publisher:
- Elsevier Science B.V.
- Journal:
- International Journal of Forecasting Journal website
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 1
- Publication date:
- 1998-01-01
- DOI:
- URN:
-
uuid:7591dc68-780d-4907-91ac-88bdf2aa436d
- Local pid:
- oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:10773
- Language:
- English
- Copyright holder:
- Elsevier Science B.V.
- Copyright date:
- 1998
- Notes:
- Copyright 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Forecasting. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 1, (1 March 1998) DOI#10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00057-5
Journal article
Forecasting Economic Processes.
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