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Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C reduces future risk of yield loss in the United States: A probabilistic modeling approach

Abstract:

This study assess the possible outcomes of yield changes in the United States which is responsible for 40% of global maize supply under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Instead of providing deterministic estimates, this study introduces a probability-based approach that allow for examination of the associated probability of each outcome, which has great implications for decision-makings. Results show distinct spatial patterns in future yield loss risk associated with temperature rise...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed
Version:
Accepted Manuscript

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.344

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
Social Sciences Division
Department:
SOGE; Environmental Change Institute
Publisher:
Elsevier Publisher's website
Journal:
Science of the Total Environment Journal website
Volume:
644
Pages:
52-59
Publication date:
2018-07-03
Acceptance date:
2018-06-27
DOI:
EISSN:
1879-1026
ISSN:
0048-9697
Pubs id:
pubs:859734
URN:
uri:74b75178-e4a6-4be2-a46a-793b844a2089
UUID:
uuid:74b75178-e4a6-4be2-a46a-793b844a2089
Local pid:
pubs:859734

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