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Skillful decadal flood prediction

Abstract:

Accurate long-term flood predictions are increasingly needed for flood risk management in a changing climate, but are hindered by the underestimation of climate variability by climate models. Here, we drive a statistical flood model with a large ensemble of dynamical CMIP5-6 predictions of precipitation and temperature. Predictions of UK winter flooding (95th streamflow percentile) have low skill when using the raw 676-member ensemble averaged over lead times of 2–5 years from the initializat...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1029/2022GL100650

Authors


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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Role:
Author
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Name:
UK Research and Innovation
Grant:
MR/V022008/1
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters More from this journal
Volume:
50
Issue:
3
Article number:
e2022GL100650
Publication date:
2023-02-06
Acceptance date:
2022-12-04
DOI:
EISSN:
1944-8007
ISSN:
0094-8276
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1311328
Local pid:
pubs:1311328
Deposit date:
2022-12-05

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