Journal article
SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy
- Abstract:
- We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.
- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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(Preview, Version of record, 13.0MB, Terms of use)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0
Authors
- Publisher:
- Springer Nature
- Journal:
- Communications Biology More from this journal
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 1
- Article number:
- 489
- Publication date:
- 2021-04-21
- Acceptance date:
- 2021-03-03
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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2399-3642
- Pmid:
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33883675
- Language:
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English
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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1174444
- Local pid:
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pubs:1174444
- Deposit date:
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2021-11-16
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Giovanetti et al.
- Copyright date:
- 2021
- Rights statement:
- ©2021 The Author(s). Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Licence:
- CC Attribution (CC BY)
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