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Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent

Abstract:

The Iron Triangle formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management – cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindness cause forecasts to fall short of actual costs. Firstly, optimism bias has been linked to effects of deception and delusion, which is caused by taking the inside-view and ignoring di...

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Authors


Alexander Budzier More by this author
Bent Flyvbjerg More by this author
Publication date:
2011-08-05
URN:
uuid:7139e1c6-1884-4563-807e-810715e78ce5
Local pid:
oai:eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk:897

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