Working paper

### Forecasting with the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model.

Abstract:
We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model. The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends. Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends. A condition for invariant forecasts is proposed. A number of standard forecast models are analysed.

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Files:
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### Authors

Volume:
W09
Series:
Economics Working Papers
Publication date:
2008-01-01
URN:
uuid:6d97958a-252f-4e13-a715-11d8010542e2
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:11932
Language:
English