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Using Real-Time Output Gaps to Examine Past and Future Policy Choices.

Abstract:

Alternative measures of the UK output gap are considered for 1984-2007. The real-time series is strongly affected by the rolling-time estimation of the trend, and produces a picture of the business cycle which is not consistent with contemporary perceptions of the large fluctuations of the late 1980s and early 1990s. A new, 'nearly-real', measure developed here may be better for estimating historical reaction functions. In the context of the current recession, none of these mechanically deriv...

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Publisher copy:
10.1177/0027950109354405

Authors


Publisher:
Sage
Journal:
National Institute Economic Review
Volume:
210
Issue:
1
Pages:
98 - 110
Publication date:
2009-10-01
DOI:
ISSN:
0027-9501
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:6c39a7cf-6963-4a7a-b676-0cc017cb8aea
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:14617
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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