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Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research.

Abstract:

This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, a...

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Publication status:
Published

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  • (Author's original, pdf, 147.4KB)
Publisher copy:
10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00055-X

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Role:
Author
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Economic Modelling Journal website
Volume:
20
Issue:
2
Pages:
301 - 329
Publication date:
2003-03-01
DOI:
ISSN:
0264-9993
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:69d0f5b9-c225-49ef-a17a-c36e6bd31b6d
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:10592
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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