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How Housing Slumps End.

Abstract:

We construct a simple probit model of the determinants of real house price slump endings. We find that the probability of a house price slump ending is higher, the smaller was the pre-slump house price run-up; the greater has been the cumualtive house price decline; the lower are real mortgage interest rates; and the higher is GDP growth. Slumps are longer, other things being equal, where housing supply is more elastic, but shorter the more developed are financial institutions. For slumps ...

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Publisher:
Department of Economics (University of Oxford)
Series:
Discussion Paper Series
Publication date:
2011-10-01
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:68f47879-cd89-45ed-a61b-6c50b6ed6a88
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:15294
Deposit date:
2011-12-16

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