Working paper icon

Working paper

Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts.

Abstract:
This chapter describes the issues confronting any realistic context for economic forecasting, which is inevitably based on unknowingly mis-specified models, usually estimated from mis-measured data, facing intermittent and often unanticipated location shifts. We focus on mitigating the systematic forecast failures that result in such settings, and describe the background to our approach, the difficulties of evaluating forecasts, and the devices that are more robust when change occurs.

Actions


Access Document


Files:
Publisher:
Department of Economics (University of Oxford)
Series:
Discussion paper series
Publication date:
2010-05-01
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:61df66ae-d0de-4241-ae83-afa5f2e6bfcf
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:14724
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

Terms of use


Views and Downloads






If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record

TO TOP