Journal article
Collective failure? Lessons from combining forecasts for the UK's referendum on EU membership
- Abstract:
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Research on election forecasting suggests there are benefits from combining different sources of information. This paper discusses the experience of a combined forecasting method that was developed for the UK's EU referendum in 2016. The sources included opinion polls, vote expectation surveys, prediction and betting markets, expert and volunteer forecasts, and various forecasting models based on polling and other kinds of data. Averages of sources within each of these categories all, in our ...
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- Publication status:
- Published
- Peer review status:
- Peer reviewed
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- Files:
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(Accepted manuscript, pdf, 287.9KB)
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- Publisher copy:
- 10.1080/17457289.2017.1380656
Authors
Bibliographic Details
- Publisher:
- Routledge Publisher's website
- Journal:
- Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Journal website
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 1
- Pages:
- 59-77
- Publication date:
- 2017-09-21
- Acceptance date:
- 2017-09-11
- DOI:
- EISSN:
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1745-7297
- ISSN:
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1745-7289
Item Description
- Keywords:
- Pubs id:
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pubs:729255
- UUID:
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uuid:612d49a8-4ed5-4ad5-b835-61f6b7ceea05
- Local pid:
- pubs:729255
- Source identifiers:
-
729255
- Deposit date:
- 2017-09-18
Terms of use
- Copyright holder:
- Elections, Public Opinion & Parties
- Copyright date:
- 2017
- Notes:
- Copyright © 2017 Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Routledge at: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1380656
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